Cost of personal genome sequencing plummeting: currently $48k (down from $2mil) and expected to be $5k soon http://bit.ly/CGP3r
Five Reasons Cheap Tablets will be 2009-2010’s Netbook
Tablet computers (or Mobile Internet Devices - MID - etc.) will probably be the next hot device in tech. Here are five reasons why:
- The price is right. Tablet computers are definitely nothing new. However, they have usually come in one of two forms: affordable, but without full computer functionality (such as the Nokia N800 series), or fully functional computers that are also fully priced (such as the IBM/Lenovo X-Series convertibles). Netbooks have recently proven that computers powerful enough for everyday tasks can now be small and cheap (<$300). All that is needed for a good “Internet Tablet” style device is a touchscreen — preferably a nicer capacitive model like the iPhone uses (no styluses, please).
- Data is in the cloud. Previously, users who had a second computing device like a tablet may have had to carry data on physical media, such as a USB flash drive. The dual-device user would also have to be sure their documents and bookmarks were constantly in sync across their devices. Now, using services like IMAP with mail, Google Docs for documents, and Foxmarks for bookmarks, users can seamlessly use whatever device they want while maintaining continuity.
- Phones aren’t quite there yet. Though there is little doubt that eventually phones will fill this niche as well as all the other ones they are beginning to dominate (GPS, camera, etc.), for the time being they can’t. The main reason is screen size. To have a fully satisfactory web browsing experience, you need a bare minimum 800 pixel horizontal resolution, with 1024 horizontal pixels being the preferred minimum. Mobile phones won’t get that without pixel packing (ruining readability), larger screen size (ruining pocketability) or experimental technology like fold-out or roll-out screens (not available yet).
- Netbooks aren’t made for the couch (or bed). Netbooks are great, and have proven very popular in the marketplace. However, they are still laptops, and a laptop is an imperfect form factor for the casual web browsing these upcoming tablets are made for. For someone who already owns a laptop, all a netbook would do is provide a smaller, lighter option for computing. A net tablet could provide many consumers a whole new form factor for information consumption, allowing activities like online shopping and RSS feed reading to be less cumbersome when not seated at a desk.
- The iPhone provided the gateway drug. Nearly two years ago, the iPhone’s launch created a tremendous beachhead for other touch interface devices to follow. Though touchscreens are actually quite old, the technology seems to have finally reached maturation with refinements like capacitive screens and multitouch interfaces. The combination of that maturation with a popular device like the iPhone has led to a critical mass that will increase the demand for all touch interface devices.
If this prediction proves to be correct, it will be very interesting to see the outcome! Devices like Amazon’s Kindle will certainly be given some stiff competition. Even though its e-ink display is superior for reading, consumers will not want to buy two $300 tablet-style devices, and will simply choose the more functional one.
Another interesting outcome will be the ongoing rise of the touchscreen. Even though the touchscreen is already completely dominating the mobile phone market, there is still significant room for the interface’s expansion into other device categories.
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Next Generation Mobile Device / “Killer App” (May 08)
Editor’s Note: I wrote this paper for Professor Mark Bryant’s Communications Technology class while I was a student at the University of Texas at Austin back in May 2008, so read with that in mind. I am posting it now without updating it for the time difference, saving that for a future post.
A new generation of mobile devices is just around the corner. Though Moore’s law is continuing [1] for the time being, right now the most exciting developments are arguably in the miniaturization of processing power. This miniaturization means higher power, higher efficiency devices able to run applications unheard of on today’s mobile phones.
For example, the Apple iPhone’s processor already runs at a speedy 620 MHz. By using Moore’s law, since the iPhone was released in the summer of 2007, we can roughly predict that before the summer of 2009 there will be a mobile device released with a clock speed around 1.2 GHz (1200 MHz). Such a speed is as fast, at least in terms of clock speed, as some subnotebook computers today, and easily quick enough to run most traditional “desktop-level” applications.
Beyond the device itself, any modern computing platform must also have a solid network connection. While Moore’s law will inevitably solve any shortfalls in processing capacity, a high-speed mobile network is needed to make any future device viable. Again using the Apple iPhone as an example, the rollout of the “2.5G” EDGE network was largely viewed as inadequate for full web functionality, even by CEO Steve Jobs himself [5].
Unfortunately, the network problem is harder to solve than by simply waving the Moore’s Law Magic Wand. While Europe and Japan have largely complete 3G networks capable of (mostly) full mobile Internet usage, North America still lags behind, with major carriers like T-Mobile only starting 3G in 2006 [6].
However, even considering network difficulties, the primary stumbling block with such small devices is the interface. As shown by the success of the iPhone, traditional (pushbutton-driven) mobile interfaces can’t really compete anymore. However, even the mighty iPhone’s touch-based interface may not be enough to fully utilize a device’s power when they start to push 2 GHz within three years.
New interfaces are already being tested and released by major consumer technology companies. The most well known of course are Nintendo’s Wii gaming console and Apple’s iPhone mobile communicator, but Microsoft is also definitely testing out next-gen interfaces in a big way. Their Surface [2] is a prototype computer used for everything a standard computer can do – browse the internet, organize digital media, collaborate electronically, etc. – except it has no mouse or keyboard. The device is based around a large 30-inch tabletop touch screen interface that can even intelligently detect when a device such as a camera is placed on it, and then wirelessly download photos.
Voice
However innovative and headline-friendly the Nintendo Wii, Apple iPhone, and Microsoft Surface are, I think that one interface not getting enough publicity is voice. This may be because voice recognition and interface has been a background fixture of many applications even since the 1990’s, but never gained popularity because of the lack of polish and a true “killer app” (application) for the interface.
A voice interface is actually one of Microsoft’s other big, public projects, starting now in Ford cars as the Sync platform. An automotive platform makes sense for the debut of a new voice interface, as a car’s environment is uniquely suited to it. First of all, a voice interface is needed for safety, as the user’s hands and eyes are occupied by driving. A car can also provide the two things currently lacking in mobile devices, at least for voice recognition, processing power and battery life.
The future voice interface will be implemented on faster, next generation mobile devices as well as cars. Of course this is already in use today in many mobile phones [3] for simple commands like “call John Smith” and even more advanced ones like searching Google, but I hypothesize that the voice interface can and will be used for much more aggressive applications.
“LifeLog” (term credit DARPA [7])
All that’s needed for this next “killer app” is a good speech recognition program, which was already available back in 2006 [3], and a faster mobile CPU to run it, which is coming within a year or two. When those come together, a digital, searchable “life recorder” becomes a distinct possibility.
Basic life “recorders” have been done before and people even use them now, but these are niche devices that record all audio in analog (non-searchable) for the day, or take photos constantly [8] at certain intervals. I propose a device that does not record waveform or any type of analog format, but instantly digitally translates all voice input it hears into text. When that is done, it becomes searchable through a Google-like interface.
Through this searchable interface, the device could give one a perfect memory of all spoken word said and heard, forever. This obviously would aid not only medical patients such as those with Alzheimer’s, but also, people of all backgrounds and jobs. Such universal appeal and utility is what make this the true next-generation “killer app”.
Of course with such a recorder comes massive privacy concerns, but those are most easily addressed by looking at the history of recent technologies. What has happened in almost every case, such as online shopping, computerized databases, and online banking, is that the convenience and utility has far outweighed the potential privacy and security issues. In the same way, the massive utility of the life recorder would outweigh privacy concerns. Adopting the technology would be slow at first, but eventually follow the diffusion of technology curve, used by society at large as the advantages of the device become known.
Such a “Life Log”-like application was actually thought of back in 1945 by Vannevar Bush when he proposed a “Memex” and is now being explored by Microsoft Research with their “MyLifeBits” project [4]. The problem with MyLifeBits is that the concept is overaggressive and reaches too far. All that is needed for the first step towards this life recorder is voice recognition installed on a mobile device. Microsoft researchers are correct about the future, there will be high-level integration with myriad other technologies including RFID, GPS, and more. However, for now, the first step is within reach using today’s software and technology.
Beyond “Lifelog”
Though this is not the main subject of this paper, further into the future this same voice recognition technology coupled with Moore’s Law-driven processor advancements could lead to mobile Artificial Intelligence (A.I.). In a way, a mobile A.I. “helper” would be the ultimate interface advancement until the development of a mind- or thought-based interface.
A handheld A.I. could probably start as a highly evolved voice interface. As voice commands evolve from the simple mentioned earlier to the more advanced, such as “Book me tickets this Saturday for Iron Man at the Alamo Drafthouse”, the device will have to be able to intelligently recognize human speech and not just computer-approved command prompts.
Conclusion
The next big upset in mobile communication isn’t the Apple iPhone referenced so frequently in this paper. While the iPhone is an extremely well designed device combining two of the most popular consumer electronics products in the last decade (the mobile phone and the iPod), it is not a radical revolution.
The revolution will come when the next true “killer app” is released, not another “killer device” like the iPhone. In my opinion, a voice-recognition driven, searchable “Life Recorder” is one of the most likely possibilities in that regard. It obviously has the ability to change the way people live, and most importantly, can be achieved with current or very-near-future technologies.
Sources
1. BBC – “Law That Has Driven Digital Life”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4449711.stm
2. Microsoft – Surface Official Site
http://www.microsoft.com/surface/index.html
3. CNET – Voice Signal Demo
http://reviews.cnet.com/4531-10921_7-6637293.html
4. Microsoft Research – MyLifeBits
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/mediapresence/MyLifeBits.aspx
5. Gizmodo – Steve Jobs on EDGE
http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/apple/jobs-tells-wsj-that-att-edge-network-isnt-fast-enough-273558.php
6. GigaOM – T-Mobile 3G Rollout
http://gigaom.com/2006/10/06/t-mobile/
7. Wired – Darpa Kills “LifeLog”
http://www.wired.com/politics/security/news/2004/02/62158
8. Microsoft Research – SenseCam
http://research.microsoft.com/sendev/projects/sensecam/memory.htm
Wake up, Apple: Allow Flash on the iPhone and stop censoring Apps
Wired had a great article last month analyzing why Apple does not currently support Flash on the iPhone. Long story short: author Brian Chen believes, correctly in my opinion, that Flash on the iPhone would take away the control Apple has always held over content on the device.
Flash would let users watch videos through any flash video site, including those that host TV episodes Apple wants to sell you through their iTunes video store. Users could also play Flash games (optimized for the iPhone, even) that would take revenue away from games sold through Apples App Store. There are legitimate concerns of course, such as security, but competitors such as Google’s Android OS seem to be taking those challenges in stride.
If Apple does not wake up and embrace change, progress, and most importantly, openness on the iPhone, the hardcore gadget nerds and software programmers will slowly abandon the platform. They will switch over to more open options such as Google’s Android. Sure, Apple will still retain the mass-market crowd for the time being, but look at the device that formerly held that dubious title: the Motorola RAZR.
I am not saying Apple is Doomed or that the iPhone is a bad device. I own one! All I am saying is that Apple is now at a critical decision point in the iPhone’s development as a computing platform. The Android OS and T-Mobile G1 are very much v1.0 products, but show tremendous promise. Apple still holds the advantage both in terms of users and developers. They can change now, embracing openness — or continue to choose the path of censorship and slowly see their core users trickle away.
UPDATE Feb. 1, 2009 - It seems Apple has finally cleared Adobe to develop flash for the iPhone, for their sake I hope it isn’t too late!
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